23 October 2024updated 25 Oct 2024 5:49pm

Kamala Harris’s man problem

A two-pronged strategy could help her campaign break the gender divide.

Last week Kamala Harris launched her “Opportunity Agenda for Black Men” plan, as she hopes – just two weeks out from the election – to shore up support from this demographic. Evidence suggests that black voters are apathetic about Harris’s campaign, more so than they have been about the Democrats in recent years. This “Opportunity Agenda” includes offering forgivable loans to black entrepreneurs, increased influence over the future of the United States’ cannabis industry, and more apprenticeships.

This is a sound strategy for an election plagued by a cost of living crisis, where voters are motivated by the economy more than any other question. But it is even smarter than that. Harris is not just targeting the black electorate, she is specifically targeting men. Since 2012 the gap between how men and women vote has been widening. In fact, there is plenty of polling that suggests this gap is at a record high – and since 2012 it has been near or greater than 20 percentage points. In 2020 Trump won the male vote by 8 points, while Biden won women by 15 points. Not once since Jimmy Carter in 1976 have a majority of men voted for Democrats.

This is a generational question too. The idea that the young are inflexibly liberal - and that by only turning out the youth vote you will guarantee better results for Democrats - is foolish. There is evidence already that young American men are growing alienated with progressive politics. In 2020 men aged 25-29 tended to go for Trump over Biden. Meanwhile, the rise of Trump appears to have galvanised young women into identifying as liberal. A similar phenomenon occurred in Britain, where the rise of Ukip caused more people to advocate for a full open border immigration policy than before. If you look below you will see that the small gender gap that existed in the US in the early 2000s has boomed since 2016.

This month Harris has embarked on a media blitz - including an appearance on Fox News, and the less traditional platform of Call Her Daddy, a podcast about sex and dating aimed primarily at women. But whispers that the candidate may go on the Joe Rogan Experience would help bolster her chances with this tricky young male demographic.

Rogan's audience skews overwhelmingly male and young. And he averages 11 million listeners per episode. Though the podcast has no clearly defined politics - Rogan hosts a broad church of guests and themes - it certainly is not particularly "progressive". By appearing on the podcast Harris could access a huge audience that is both increasingly alienated with politics and not strictly liberal.

The current state of political programming is siloed - MSNBC and Fox viewers both already have fixed allegiances and identities. To win, candidates need to know not just how to speak across these harshly drawn lines, but how to speak to those who fall between the cracks. A slew of Rogan fans will be among that pool of voters who see themselves as neither liberal nor conservative. Harris could have a smart, dual-pronged strategy on her hands: targeting the black male vote with economic promises, and sitting down with Rogan to access hard to reach men. Extracting herself from the bubble is a necessary route to electoral success.